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Finance Magazine - May 2006 Issue

Analysts divided on likelihood of bear market - global rally or Black Monday?
The jury is out on whether or not global equities are at the start of a bear market. Financial analysts responding to the question in this issue have different forecasts, with one proposing global equities will rally by year-end, (although he maintains that Irish equities are predicted to under-perform their European peers); and another identifying many similarities between today's market conditions, and those of ‘Black Monday’, in October 1987.
Brennan to succeed Crowley at IBI
Roisin Brennan is to succeed Peter Crowley as CEO of IBI Corporate Finance following Crowley’s resignation. The appointment takes effect from September 2006, and it is as yet unknown what Crowley will do next. Crowley’s successor is Roisin Brennan, who has been a director of the firm since 1995.
Ireland’s unique securitisation industry
Fiona Reddan looks back over the key developments in the Irish securitisation sector over the past 12 months, highlighting important events such as: two issuance firsts – the first commercial mortgage backed securitisation (CMBS) and the first residential mortgage backed securitisation (RMBS) of non-conforming loans; the implementation of the Prospectus Directive and the resulting growth of corporate deals listing on the Irish Stock Exchange; the growth in investment in asset-backed securities (ABS) by Irish based investors to €100 billion; the creation of the Irish Securitisation Forum; and the strong deal pipeline of collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) from Irish based collateral managers.
Prospectus Directive is driving growth on the ISE
Since its inception in 1999, the debt listings function on the Irish Stock Exchange has gone from strength to strength, with listings growing by 49 per cent. in 2005, writes Gerard Scully. This strong performance looks set to continue into 2006, with Quarter 1 statistics showing a 50 per cent increase over the corresponding period in 2005.
Ireland: a prime location for global structured finance - the legal and taxation analysis
Since Ireland first emerged in the global securitisation and structured financing market, it has developed a highly regarded regulatory regime, and has consistently introduced and refined its legislation dealing with structured finance transactions, write Garry Ferguson and Mark O’Sullivan. A recent example of this, is this year’s amendment to the Quoted Eurobond exemption in Finance Act 2006. Following enactment, Ferguson and O’Sullivan write that there has already been a marked increase in the volume of securities issued by Irish issuers which are sold to investors in the United States.
Dublin is well positioned to manage next wave of leveraged credit vehicles in the ABS market
The changing landscape of banking in Ireland, and developments that were occurring in the international capital markets encouraged a number of asset-backed securities (ABS) investors and issuers to join in the initiative spearheaded by Financial Services Ireland (FSI) and the Irish Bankers Federation (IBF), to highlight and promote the securitisation industry in Ireland. In 2005, the Irish Securitisation Forum (ISF) was formed, to better represent the Irish securitisation industry. The Forum is chaired by Deirdre Somers, director of listings at the Irish Stock Exchange (ISE), and has two working groups – the service provider group headed by Darina Barrett, a partner with KPMG, and the investor/issuer group, headed by Neil Ryan, the former managing director of Naspa Dublin. In this article Ryan reviews the growth in the sector form an issuer/investor perspective, and writes that by developing Dublin further as a major centre for specialist securitisation investing and trading, by promoting and marketing the skill base, the track record and Dublin’s internationally recognised ABS investment hub or ‘cluster’, Ireland can become the premier location for the next wave of ABS issuing and investor vehicles.
From copulas to CDOs - pricing tranches
In FINANCE February, Finbarr Murphy and Bernard Murphy looked at how one can price Basket Default Swaps (BDSs) using Gaussian copulas. Copula functions are a relatively new tool in finance, and they are used to construct multivariate distributions, and to investigate dependence structure between random variables. In this issue, they continue this discussion to demonstrate how one can use Copula functions to value multi-tranche synthetic Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs), and they point out some of the risks inherent in these instruments.
Fresh 'Start' for Irish securitisation market
Start Mortgages, the specialist mortgage lender, has transacted Ireland’s first securitisation of non-conforming Irish residential mortgages. Niall Corish, chief financial officer of Start, talks to Fiona Reddan about the transaction.
European covered bonds: the success story continues with longer maturities, new issuers and new segments
The European covered bond market prospered in 2005, thanks to improved issuer fundamentals and increasing demand for covered bonds, writes Ralf Grossmann. 2006 has gotten off to a record start, with total new issuance volumes in the first four months of the year reaching €75.8 billion. This is the highest volume issued in the first four months of a year since the start of the benchmark covered bond market. In Ireland, although the market lost some momentum in 2005, with overall issuance down by €9 billion, 2006 has gotten off to a good start, with a new issuer, AIB, entering the market.
ABS listings on ISE are buoyant with strong deal pipeline
Carol O’Sullivan gives an update on developments in specialist debt listings on the Irish Stock Exchange,referring to the smooth introduction of the Prospectus Directive last July, which has led to an increase in corporate debt listings.
ESF publishes long-awaited RMBS rules
A unified set of standards for the European Residential Mortgage Backed Securitisation (RMBS) market has been published by the European Securitisation Forum (ESF), the representative body of the industry in Europe.
IFRSs for investors in securitised transactions
Vincent Reilly reveals the intricacy of accounting for financial instruments under IFRSs, and its potentially significant impact for investors in securitised transactions. He writes that the complexity of IFRSs, and the volume of guidance surrounding it will pose a significant challenge not just to investors, but also to the SPV administration industry in Ireland.
Business friendly?
Tax competition will eventually erode the competitive advantage of low tax states such as Ireland. In the future, tax competitiveness may come to depend not only on headline tax rates, but on being a business-friendly tax jurisdiction.
The UK Budget
Financial service matters dominated the relatively sparse tax content of Gordon Brown’s tenth budget. His vision for the future of the UK should be of interest in Ireland, writes Eamonn Donaghy, tax partner, KPMG.
A Day in the Life: Kieran Kelly head of audit practice at Ernst & Young
As head of Ernst & Young’s Audit practice, Kieran Kelly is frequently on the road, catching up with clients and colleagues around the world. With the increased focus on corporate governance standards, the audit environment has been very challenging over the past number of years, said Kelly, but he adds that the profession is now moving beyond these changes to focus on growth and development.
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