| Clare's last column - in this millenium |
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Aidan Clare is taking a year's sabbatical from Ulster Bank Markets where he has been serving as Head of Capital Markets. He will be travelling to France with his wife Roisin where he plans to study at a top business school as well as to improve on his existing language skills. Aidan has a keen ability to combine analysis of geo-political and cross-market factors with historical economic perspective. This potent combination has produced incisive conclusions, which have served our readers well over the last seven years. Below we outline some of his more memorable calls.
1992 Correctly predicted not just the collapse of the ERM months in advance but the manner in which it would come about - a speculative targeting of the weakest first e.g. lira, then the middle rankers e.g. Irish pound, then the strongest i.e. French franc, then a system collapse.
1993 Anticipated a medium term recovery in gold, months before George Soros enhanced his reputation by correctly anticipating the same move in late '93.
1994 Armed with an appreciation of inter-market analysis few possess, Aidan anticipated and stayed with a call for persistent declines in global bond markets due to inflation fears (bonds experienced the greatest one year decline of the last two decades during 1994).
1995 Called a recovery in bond markets due to renewed deflationary pressure and a reinvigoration of the path to European Monetary Union 1996/8. Repeatedly stressed the need to focus on EMU which he was convinced (long before it was a majority view) would proceed. Highlighted its bullish impact on interest rates and equities.
1998 Predicted Y2K would boost the year-end premium on cost of funds for 1999, in advance of a six-fold explosion in the y/e premium. |
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| Article appeared in the June 1999 issue.
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